Solar Cycle 25 Ending? What Every POTA Op Needs To Do NOW

If you've turned on your HF rig recently, you might have noticed a shift in the airwaves. The effortless, wide-open bands we enjoyed just a short time ago are becoming a bit more temperamental. In a recent video discussion, I sat down with Greg (KJ6ER)—renowned antenna designer and mastermind behind popular portable antennas like the POTA PERformer and the Marauder—to talk about the current state of amateur radio. The reality is clear: Solar Cycle 25 reached its apex roughly 6 to 18 months ago (peaking in late 2024), and we are now entering a period of decline. With propagation conditions expected to bottom out around late 2030, the "easy days" of casual operating are slowly fading. But for portable operators willing to adapt, the hobby is about to get a lot more rewarding. Here is how you can pivot your operating strategy to thrive as Solar Cycle 25 winds down. From Casual Trolling to "Earned DX" At the peak of a solar cycle, even a compromised setup can net global contacts. You could simply spin the dial—casual "trolling"—and stumble into a massive pileup. Today, that mindset needs to shift. As we slide down the backside of Cycle 25, operators must embrace the concept of "Earned DX." This means you can no longer rely on hyper-charged ionospheric conditions to do the heavy lifting. Instead, successful contacts will require deliberate precision. You must be strategic about the band you choose, the mode you operate in, and the exact time you press the PTT button. Tactical Band and Mode Selection As solar flux indices drop, the higher frequency bands (like 10, 12, and 15 meters) will become less reliable and open less frequently. To keep your logbook full, you need to adapt your hunting grounds: The New Workhorses: The 20-meter and 40-meter bands are stepping back into their traditional roles as the heavy lifters of HF radio. Expect to spend the majority of your operating time here. The Digital & CW Refugees: As voice (SSB) contacts become more difficult to pull out of the noise floor, bands like 60-meter, 80-meter, and 30-meter will become vital. Mode Adaptation: If you have been strictly a voice operator, now is the time to branch out. Continuous Wave (CW) and digital modes (like FT8, FT4, and PSK) are inherently more efficient than Sideband. When the bands are crowded or signals are weak, these modes can cut through the atmospheric noise and secure contacts that would be impossible on voice. Maximizing the Clock: Gray Line and Contests Timing is everything in a declining solar cycle. To maximize your reach, you must use the Earth's rotation to your advantage: Catching the Gray Line: The "gray line" is the band of twilight separating day and night on Earth. Operating during your local sunrise or sunset can create highly efficient propagation paths, temporarily opening up impressive DX opportunities on lower bands that might otherwise seem dead. Leveraging Contest Weekends: During solar lulls, bands can seem deceptively quiet simply because fewer people are calling CQ. Contest weekends solve this by injecting thousands of active operators into the spectrum. Even if you aren't a serious contester, these weekends are golden opportunities to find activity and test your setup. The Hardware: Efficiency is King Greg (KJ6ER) is a master of antenna design, so it’s no surprise that he emphasizes one critical technical truth: Radiation efficiency is the most critical factor for success. When propagation is poor, you cannot afford to waste your signal in a lossy matching network or an inefficient radiating element. Adding a linear amplifier to a poor antenna just makes you a louder bad signal. Instead, the focus must be on high-efficiency, resonant systems. Antennas like Greg’s PERformer (a highly efficient elevated vertical) or the Marauder (a 2-element Moxon-inspired directional array) give portable operators a massive advantage by focusing their limited power exactly where it needs to go. Advanced Techniques to Explore: Dedicated Receive Antennas: On the lower bands (40m, 80m, 160m), atmospheric noise can bury weak signals. Experimenting with dedicated receive antennas, such as Beverages or Beverage-on-Ground (BOG) wires, can drastically drop your noise floor. Long-Path Propagation: When the direct, short-path route to a DX station is closed by the ionosphere, point your antenna the opposite way. Long-path propagation can sometimes shoot your signal the long way around the globe, bypassing dead zones. The Operator's Digital Toolkit You can no longer guess what the sun is doing; you need data. Incorporate real-time propagation tools into your daily routine. Resources like DXView, SolarHam, and HamDash are essential for monitoring solar weather, checking active spotting clusters, and predicting where your signal can actually travel before you even unpack your radio. Get out there, tune your antennas, and start earning your DX.