A Hawkish Fed Debut, a Fragile Iran Deal, and a Firmer Dollar

RenMac breaks down new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting — the most hawkish FOMC outcome on record by the move in the two-year yield — why falling oil won't pull the Fed off its tightening bias, and how rate hikes are now on the table as soon as July. The team also discusses the fragile Iran settlement, a firmer dollar, the Defense Production Act's reach into non-defense names, US-versus-ex-US equity leadership, and the week ahead in core PCE, Micron, and Fed speakers. Subscribe to our newsletter: https://go.renmac.com/newsletter Request a trial of our research (for professional money managers) https://start.renmac.com/trial Sign up for our research (for individual investors): https://renmacaccess.com/ Get merch at https://renmacmerch.com Timestamps 0:00 – Welcome, Disclaimer & Off-Script Intro 3:34 – Fed Reaction Function Under Warsh 6:29 – Bond Market Repricing & Equity Market Rotation 7:26 – AI, Rates & Market Cycle Risks 9:54 – Summer Seasonality and July Market Strength 10:42 – Iran Deal, Strait of Hormuz & Oil Risk 13:08 – Oil Below $75, Fed Tightening & the U.S. Dollar 16:15 – Dollar Charts, Real Rates & Energy Opportunities 17:24 – RenMac Newsletter Break 17:38 – Gas Prices, Consumer Spending & Savings 19:48 – September Fed Hike Odds 23:13 – Powell, the Dot Plot & Trump’s Policy Crosscurrents 25:10 – Defense Production Act, Munitions & Defense Stocks 27:36 – Mailbag: Higher-for-Longer and Ex-U.S. Markets 30:35 – What Steve Is Watching: Prime Day, Housing Bill & India Trade 31:56 – What Neil Is Watching: Core PCE, Housing, Capex & Fed Speakers 34:42 – What Jeff Is Watching: Micron, Semis & Sentiment 36:23 – Closing Remarks