Рост ВВП 6,5% при инфляции 12% — это нездоровая картина Евгения Пак о реальном состоянии экономики

GDP is growing at 6.5%, while real incomes of Kazakhs are falling. Inflation is at 12%, but the government continues to pump money into the economy through preferential programs. The National Bank is trying to cool the market, while the Ministry of Economy is demanding even more growth. These two hands are acting independently. Evgenia Pak, Managing Director of the AERC Center for Applied Economic Research, explains why banks are creating a new reserve fund, why a 25% corporate income tax rate is a logical contradiction, where figures like "16% VAT" come from, and who ultimately pays for all of this. Spoiler alert: the average Kazakh. Always. Guest: Evgenia Pak, Managing Director of AERC (Center for Applied Economic Research). TIMECODES 00:00 — Will banks rat on each other? New Reserve Fund – Why is it Needed? 00:36 – Welcome: Understanding the Financial Sector 01:12 – Kazakhstan's External Debt Reaches Record High – Should We Panic? 02:06 – Intercompany Debt: Why It's Not a Debt to Fear 03:24 – The Quasi-State Sector is Borrowing – Who Will Pay? 04:26 — How the Tenge's Depreciation Makes Foreign Debt Heavier 06:19 — New Reserve Fund: An Idea from Europe and Why We Need It 08:24 — How the New Fund Differs from the Existing KGD Fund 09:56 — Why the Idea Is Not Bad—and Why It's Untimely 10:47 — Moral Hazard: How Banks Can Start Taking More Risk 12:45 — Minimum Reserve Requirements—the Central Bank's Toughest Tool 13:57 — Why the National Bank is Using All of Its Tools at Once 15:22 — Minimum Reserve Requirements: Why They're Unpredictable 16:31 — Regulation Fuss: Too Many Decisions at Once 16:57 — The National Bank is Slowing Down, the Government is Stepping on the Gas—Where's the Logic? 5:53 PM — Lack of coordination between fiscal and monetary policy — an expert's personal opinion 6:47 PM — GDP at 6.5% with inflation at 12% — an unhealthy picture 7:15 PM — Real incomes fell throughout 2025 10:03 PM — Banking sector: who will pay for tighter regulation 11:12 PM — "It will work" — an expert directly states that the costs will be passed on to clients 24:10 — 25% corporate income tax for banks — a logical contradiction for the government 26:46 — Where does the 25% figure come from? No regulatory impact assessment 27:17 PM — VAT: How 20% became 16% and why no one explained either 29:01 PM — How does the VAT increase directly affect inflation — a case study in Russia 31:46 — Bank assets are growing — is this overheating or normal? 33:13 — Forecast: Economic Cooling Has Already Begun 33:38 — Microfinance Institutions Becoming Banks: New Players and New Uncertainty 34:26 — Where the Banking System Is Heading — An Expert's Forecast 35:21 — Pay Now or Pay Later — There's No Middle Ground