Analisis Saham ADRO - Kinerja FY25 dan Proyeksi 2026 PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk

Join the Stock Sharing Discord Group:   / discord   #ADRO #Adaro #stockanalysis #stocks #today'sstockanalysis #Indonesianstock #investment #IHSG #stockinvestment #investing Here is a summary of insights regarding the latest FY25 financial performance, projections, and prospects for ADRO (PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk) shares. FY25 Insight and Financial Performance Summary ADRO reported a net profit of US$448 million for fiscal year 2025 (FY25), reflecting a 73% year-on-year (yoy) decline. Despite the year-on-year decline, this result was 120% above consensus estimates, primarily due to significantly lower operating expenses (opex) than expected. In the fourth quarter (4Q25), net profit rose 15% quarter-on-quarter (qoq) to US$146 million. The main driver of this growth was the performance of its subsidiary, ADMR, which recorded a 21% quarter-on-quarter increase in sales volume and a 17% quarter-on-quarter increase in cash margin as logistical constraints eased. However, this growth was partially hampered by declining volume and margins in the SIS segment due to seasonal factors. 2026 Profit Projection Based on source data, ADRO's net profit projection for 2026 has been increased by 31% to US$845 million. This projection increase is based on two main factors: • Increased coking coal price assumption: The price assumption was raised to US$220/t, up from US$200/t. • Aluminum project consolidation: Incorporation of ADMR's aluminum projects into the company's valuation model. Revenue for 2026 is also projected to increase to US$3,856 million, up from US$1,874 million. ADRO Stock Prospects in 2026 Analysts maintain their BUY recommendation for ADRO shares with a target price (TP) raised to IDR 3,600 per share (previously IDR 2,800). This target provides upside potential of approximately 50% from the current price of IDR 2,450. Several key points regarding ADRO's stock prospects include: • Intrinsic Value: Analysts believe ADRO's intrinsic value is still underappreciated by the market. Even without accounting for its green business, the target price is estimated at IDR 3,000 per share. • Valuation: The stock is trading with an implied Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E) of 8.8x for 2026. • Key Risks: This outlook remains subject to risks such as lower-than-expected coking coal prices, delays to aluminum projects or future expansions, and capital expenditure overruns.