Inclus x Nordic West Office Webinar w/ Charly Salonius-Pasternak: Scenario Planning for Polycrisis

In this joint webinar, Inclus and Nordic West Office explored how companies can navigate today’s volatile and uncertain global environment through structured scenario planning. Charly Salonius-Pasternak (CEO, Nordic West Office) introduced four global scenarios developed with multinational companies: Tech Boom, Orderly Decoupling, Sleepwalking, and Polycrisis. These scenarios are built around two key drivers: the level of global interconnectedness vs. fragmentation, and whether the world is government- or market-driven. The discussion focused particularly on the Polycrisis scenario, characterized by escalating geopolitical tensions, regional military conflicts (Europe, Middle East, Asia-Pacific), geoeconomic confrontation, and weakening alliance cohesion. Participants reflected on the growing likelihood that the world is moving from “Sleepwalking” toward a more fragmented, government-driven polycrisis environment. A key theme was the importance of preparing for plausible — not just extreme — futures. The speakers emphasized that scenario planning is not about predicting the future, but about improving strategic preparedness, identifying vulnerabilities, and recognizing opportunities under different global developments. The webinar also examined U.S. political instability as a potential driver of global disruption and discussed U.S.–China relations, noting that while full-scale war is unlikely, intensified economic, cyber, and geopolitical competition is highly probable. Finally, Inclus demonstrated how scenario analysis can be integrated into enterprise risk management. By stress-testing strategy, supply chains, partnerships, and financial exposure against different geopolitical futures, companies can move from reactive anxiety to proactive agency — building resilience while identifying strategic opportunities.