Energy Shock vs. AI Disinflation: Two Inflation Stories Collide

Markets are facing two competing inflation narratives: a near‑term, Iran‑driven energy shock pushing risks higher, and the possibility that AI‑led productivity acts as a longer‑run disinflationary force. Patrick Coffey and Jon Hill discuss how energy feeds into headline vs core inflation, what breakevens and real yields are signalling, and how central banks may respond.