The Donroe Doctrine, Russia's War in Ukraine, and Putin's Odds of Winning (with Michael Kofman)

How has the battlefield changed as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year? With drones now driving the vast majority of frontline attrition and the front becoming a deadly “grey zone” where presence no longer guarantees control, what do Russia’s evolving infiltration tactics reveal about where the war is heading? And as Moscow continues to fight by consuming Soviet-era stocks—the “last war of the Soviet Army”—can it sustain offensive pressure as those reserves decline? Finally, if this war will not be decided by “the next 20 kilometers,” what does “victory” actually mean when territory is no longer the only measure of success? These and other questions are explored in the NYU Jordan Center’s new series, Russia and Its Neighbors: In Search of a New Paradigm – In Conversation with Dr. Yevgenia Albats, which aims to understand how Russia moved from a fragile democracy to an aggressive, militarized dictatorship—and what that shift means for the region and the world. In this session, Dr. Yevgenia Albats speaks with Michael Kofman, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and widely recognized as one of the leading authorities on the Russian armed forces. A frequent visitor to the frontlines who conducts on-the-ground field research, Kofman brings a granular, reality-based perspective that cuts through the fog of war. Timecodes 00:04 — 06:30 Introduction and Opening Remarks. 06:30 — 09:57 Battlefield Review. 09:57 — 14:57Tactical Adaptations: The Drone War. 14:57 — 20:01 Infiltration Tactics and Casualty Dynamics. 20:01 — 22:34 The use of motorcycles and buggies for high-speed assaults. A technological shift in 2025: Shahed drones and glide bombs are now being used dynamically against moving battlefield targets (like trains and HIMARS), not just static infrastructure. 22:34 — 28:07 The "Grey Zone" Frontline. Description of the current front: not continuous trench lines like WWI, but a series of "pickets" with large gaps. The "tug of war" for drone superiority in the 25km zone behind the lines. 28:07 — 43:55 Strategic Goals and Negotiations. Why Putin demands territory he doesn't control (Donetsk, Kherson) as a prerequisite for talks. Kofman argues that territory is a currency for legitimacy in any settlement. 43:55 — 55:27 "The Last War of the Soviet Army." Analysis of Russia’s equipment shortages. The war is largely being fought by consuming Soviet-era stocks, which are running out. New production cannot fully replace losses, and Russia has burned through its mobilization potential. 55:27 — 57:22 Infrastructure Strikes and Winter. The shift of Russian strikes in late 2025 from defense industry to energy (gas and heating) to freeze the population. 01:06:30 — 01:16:03 Manpower Crisis and Sanctions Evasion. 01:16:59 — 01:24:23 Defining Victory and Future Uncertainty. Kofman argues the war’s outcome won't be decided by the next 20km of territory. Ukraine has likely secured its sovereignty, but the ultimate definition of "victory" depends on the stability of the post-war peace (drawing a comparison to the Korean War). 01:39:50 — 01:51:16 Russian Reconstitution and the NATO Challenge. Debate on how fast Russia can rebuild (5-10 years) and pose a threat to NATO. Kofman explains the political difficulty Western leaders face in justifying heavy defense spending for a future threat when voters care about immediate social issues. Closing remarks and announcements.