Why Saving Too Much Is the Real Retirement Risk

📊 Stress-test your withdrawal rate: https://cognitofinance.gumroad.com/l/... Only 11% of retirees have a spending mindset. If you're 50-65 with a meaningful 401(k) or IRA balance, the 4% rule is costing you more than you think. EBRI data shows roughly one-third of retirees finish their first 18 years with more money than they started with. The 4% rule was built around the 1966 worst case — and Bill Bengen, the planner who created it, now says 4.7% to 5%+ is defensible for most retirees. Here's the spreadsheet I built to run withdrawal-rate scenarios for my own retirement planning — guardrails, sequence-of-returns risk, horizon-adjusted rates, and more. If you want to model what 5% on your portfolio actually looks like across 30 years with inflation and market crashes baked in, the link above runs that — and more. Covers safe withdrawal rate research from Michael Kitces, the go-go/slow-go/no-go spending curve, and why sequence-of-returns risk is the one real argument for caution. Chapters: 0:00 The 11% spending mindset problem 1:18 Why saving became your identity 2:15 One-third of retirees finish richer 3:40 The 4% rule's real history 5:18 Why Bengen now says 5%+ 7:02 $475K you're walking past 8:22 Your horizon changes everything 9:42 Sequence-of-returns risk explained 10:32 The guardrails fix 12:04 The go-go years close fast → Roth Conversion & Retirement Tax Planner: https://cognitofinance.gumroad.com/l/... General education only — talk to a fee-only fiduciary before changing your withdrawal rate. See you in the next one. #RetirementPlanning #PersonalFinance #Investing #4PercentRule #EarlyRetirement