PESQUISA ELEITORAL GENIAL/QUAEST: ANTIPETISMO CAI A 36% E ANTIBOLSONARISMO SOBE A 44%

The latest round of the Genial/Quaest survey reveals a significant shift in the Brazilian political landscape: while anti-PT sentiment has fallen to its lowest level in the series presented by the institute, anti-Bolsonaro sentiment is growing and reaching its highest point. The numbers do not directly represent voting intentions, but they help to gauge the rejection barriers that each political camp may face in the 2026 presidential election. The survey was conducted between July 10th and 13th, 2026, with 2,004 Brazilians aged 16 or older. The interviews were conducted in person at the respondents' homes, with an estimated margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the Electoral Court under number BR-07181/2026. The sample was constructed in three stages, beginning with the random selection of 120 municipalities, followed by the selection of census tracts and the definition of respondents by quotas based on region, gender, age, education, and income. Quaest also reports that it used statistical calibration by rake and MRP modeling for the subgroup estimates. The percentage of Brazilians who identify as anti-PT (Workers' Party) fell from 38% in June to 36% in July. Conversely, 59% of respondents are classified as not anti-PT, while 5% did not know or preferred not to answer. The 36% represents the lowest anti-PT sentiment rate in the series presented by the survey. In March, the indicator had reached 42%. Since then, it has lost six percentage points, while the proportion of non-anti-PT voters has increased and stabilized at 59%. Subtracting the 36% of anti-PT voters from the 59% of non-anti-PT voters, we arrive at an analytical balance of acceptability of 23 percentage points for the PT. This indicator is not officially presented by the institute, but it allows for a comparison of the level of resistance with the universe that does not express rejection of the party. It is important to clarify that being non-anti-PT does not necessarily mean supporting the PT or voting for a PT candidate. This simply means that the party does not evoke in that interviewee the negative sentiment used by the research to characterize anti-PT sentiment. Regarding Jair Bolsonaro, the movement is in the opposite direction. Anti-Bolsonaro sentiment rose from 41% in June to 44% in July, the highest percentage in the series. At the same time, the proportion of Brazilians classified as not anti-Bolsonaro fell from 56% to 51%. Another 5% did not know or did not answer. The difference between non-anti-Bolsonaro and anti-Bolsonaro is, therefore, only seven percentage points: 51% minus 44%. The comparison shows a relevant asymmetry. Negative sentiment against Bolsonaro is eight points higher than anti-PT sentiment — 44% versus 36%. However, the PT's approval rating surpasses Bolsonaro's by 16 points: 23 versus seven. The result indicates that Bolsonaro faces a more polarized environment and a broader rejection barrier. This could affect not only any potential direct action by the former president, but also his ability to transfer support to a candidate identified as a representative of Bolsonarism. This transfer, however, is not measured by the study. The survey asks about Jair Bolsonaro, not about Flávio Bolsonaro or another possible candidate from the right. The July snapshot shows that polarization continues to structure the Brazilian electorate, but the two poles arrive at the 2026 debate with different obstacles. The PT needs to avoid the reactivation of anti-PT sentiment. Bolsonarism, in turn, needs to reduce a rejection rate that already reaches 44% of the population and is approaching half of the female electorate. #GenialQuaestSurvey #AntiPTSentiment #AntiBolsonarism #Elections2026 #ElectoralResearch #ElectoralAnalysis #BrazilianPolitics #PublicOpinion #PT #Bolsonarism