¿Cuándo comprar oro? Tres modelos matemáticos para saber si ha tocado suelo o seguirá cayendo

When to Buy Gold? Three Mathematical Models to Determine if It Has Bottomed Out or Will Continue to Fall Bullfy trader and content creator at El Monito Inversor, Jordi Grados, has presented three quantitative and analytical approaches to evaluate the valuation and projections of gold's price in the current market: the global liquidity model, the World Gold Council's macroeconomic model, and his own probabilistic system based on technical indicators and historical metrics. First, Grados detailed the global liquidity model developed by Jürgen Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity. This theory argues that, following a pattern shift observed since 2022, gold's behavior responds directly to global liquidity flows. According to this model, speculative money initially moved from Bitcoin to the precious metal before migrating to the semiconductor and artificial intelligence sectors. Based on these monetary mass metrics, the model places gold at theoretical undervaluation levels close to 13% relative to its implied value. Secondly, the World Gold Council's GREM macroeconomic model was analyzed. This model integrates variables such as economic growth, geopolitical factors, the behavior of the US dollar, interest rates, and momentum dynamics. The organization envisions a baseline scenario of technical consolidation for the second half of 2026, within a range of $3,500 to $3,900 per ounce, directly excluding undisclosed purchases by central banks. Finally, Grados presented its stochastic probabilistic model using the Parabolic SAR indicator on weekly candlesticks, evaluating the asset's behavior after corrections from highs exceeding 20%. Historical data since 1971 shows that, following the activation of weekly reversal signals after drops of this magnitude, the median one-year return is 6.9% with a 58.3% success rate. Over a five-year horizon, the probability of success increases to 66% with a median cumulative return of 49%, driven by long-term structural supercycle phases. #interview #gold #investment #market #geopolitics #liquidity #trading #economy #wallstreet #bitcoin #chips #AI #finance #businessTV 🔞Disclaimer: All information, material, and/or content included in this program is for informational and educational purposes only. Investing in stocks, options, and futures is risky and not suitable for all investors. Consult your own independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Business TV is not responsible for the opinions expressed in the video.