Why 2028 could be the most unstable election in modern history

Could 2026 become an anti-establishment wave election? Across the country, small signs of voter rebellion are beginning to emerge in the 2026 congressional primaries. House members running for higher office are losing their primaries — some, even after getting Donald Trump’s powerful endorsement. An incumbent governor lost a Senate primary race, as did two incumbent senators. Dozens of incumbents are pulling smaller shares of the primary vote than last time around. And while it’s too early to say for certain, the signs are pointing to two big trends converging — and together they could upend not just the 2026 midterms but the 2028 presidential primaries as well. 0:00 Anti-incumbent wave building 1:03 Incumbents’ promotions denied 2:29 Senate incumbents’ struggles 3:04 Declining margins of victory 4:34 2028 implications 6:12 The primaries problem 7:10 Presidential cycle volatility Subscribe to Steve's newsletter: TheLongRun.news Subscribe to The Recount    / @therecount