【40年ぶり】止まらない円安の原因は？利上げしても円が売られ続ける「3つの要因」【前編】

On July 23rd, the dollar-yen exchange rate temporarily fell to around 163.90 yen to the dollar. This is the weakest level for the yen in approximately 40 years, since November 1986. It's a historical event, comparable to the period immediately following the Plaza Accord. Moreover, this yen depreciation is different from previous instances. The Bank of Japan is raising interest rates, and the interest rate differential between Japan and the US is actually narrowing—textbook logic would suggest a strengthening of the yen. However, the yen has been sold against almost all major currencies, and the "real effective exchange rate," which reflects the overall strength of the yen, has hit its lowest level since records began. This situation will be explained in two parts. In this first part, we will start with the basics of "what is a weak yen," briefly outline the principles that drive exchange rates, such as prices, money supply, interest rates, real demand, and people's expectations. Then, we will analyze three factors that are pushing down the yen's depreciation—the situation in the Middle East and rising oil prices, the resurgence of inflation in the US, and concerns about Japanese policies—factors that cannot be explained by interest rate differentials alone. In the second part, we'll offer a mental exercise by considering the "risk of a stronger yen" amidst this overwhelmingly weak yen situation. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 What you'll learn from this video ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ • Introduction: 1 dollar equals 163 yen, a level not seen in 40 years • What exactly is a "weak yen"? • Why is the yen "weak" when the numbers are getting bigger? --Yen depreciation and dollar strength are two sides of the same coin How to distinguish between dollar strength and yen depreciation The answer is "overwhelmingly weak yen across the board" -- Euro and Swiss franc also in the lowest range The overall strength of the yen -- What is the real effective exchange rate? Lowest level since records began, about one-third of the peak level [Principle of exchange rates ①] Exchange rates are the exchange ratio between currencies [Principle of exchange rates ②] Prices and the value of currency [Principle of exchange rates ③] If the amount of currency increases, its value decreases [Principle of exchange rates ④] Demand and supply -- What currency do you want to hold? Interest rate differential -- Japan 1.2% and the US 3.9% Real demand -- Yen selling and buying generated by trade and payments "Forecasts" and "expectations" that move the market ​​[Main topic] The history of yen depreciation in the past year -- From 147 yen to 163 yen The largest exchange rate intervention in history at 11.7 trillion yen and its aftermath This yen depreciation cannot be explained by interest rate differentials [Factor ①] Middle East Situation – Dual Pressure from Dollar Buying During Crisis and High Oil Prices • [Factor ②] Resurgence of Inflation in the US – From a Halting of Interest Rate Cuts to Expectations of Interest Rate Hikes • [Factor ③] Caution Regarding Japanese Policies – Proactive Fiscal Policy and Continued Easing • Fiscal Consolidation Disappears from the "Basic Policy Guidelines" • New NISA and Service Deficits – Structural Yen Selling Pressure • Summary – Unprecedented Yen Depreciation Created by Multiple Factors ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📖 Related Videos ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✅️ [Part 2] Considering the "Risk of a Stronger Yen" in the Midst of Extreme Yen Depreciation 👉️ Coming Soon! ✅️ Why did the "safe-haven yen buying" strategy disappear? – An explanation of rising oil prices and the strong dollar 👉️    • なぜ危機でも円安が止まらないのか？「有事の円高」が起きない理由をわかりやすく解説します   ✅️ An explanation of the largest currency intervention in history 👉️    • 【円買い介入】政府は10兆円で何をしたのか？為替介入の仕組みと効果をわかりやすく解説   ✅️ How high will variable mortgage interest rates rise with the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike? 👉️    • 日銀利上げで住宅ローン変動金利はどこまで上がる？返済額シミュレーションで徹底検証！   ✅️ A must-see for beginners! 🤭Investing Basics and How to Get Started😎 (Playlist) 👉️    • 初心者必見！🤭投資の基本と始め方😎   ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔍 Keywords ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ #YenDepreciation #DollarYen #ForeignExchange #ForeignExchangeIntervention #BankofJapan #FRB #InterestRateHike #Inflation #TakaichiYenDepreciation