O PLANO SAFRA ENCOLHEU | Quais ações do agro ainda ganham em 2026?

Meet VAROS Academy: https://varos.com.br/varos-academy?ut... They announced the 2026/2027 Harvest Plan as the largest in history: R$ 525 billion. But that's a lie. The number is true, what's false is calling it the largest, because when you discount inflation, this giant plan became smaller than last year's. In real money, the plan shrank by almost 3%. And the operating credit, which the producer uses to run the crop, fell by more than 11%. They printed a record in a headline that, in the producer's pocket, is the biggest drop in years. In this video, I take the historical data from the last ten years of the Plano Safra (agricultural subsidy program), adjust everything for inflation, and show what the numbers truly represent. But the point that matters to the stock market is another. What you're seeing isn't a weak one-year plan, it's a forty-year trend: the State leaving the scene as a financier of the countryside and private money taking its place. And that's what separates the companies that truly win from those that are just piggybacking on the announcement. I show the names of agribusiness companies on the stock exchange and where each one fits in: those who benefit from private money passing through them, those the market thinks are winning but are actually working against their own cuts, the entire sector that seems to be winning but in reality suffered a cut in half, the neutral companies that the plan doesn't even touch, and the most difficult name of all, which helps going forward but carries a hole in the past. 00:00 The "biggest crop plan in history" is a lie 01:27 What the total number of R$ 525 billion really means 02:08 Two consecutive years of real shrinkage 02:40 The 11% cut in operating costs 03:12 The illusion of a 38% increase in investment 04:49 Lower interest rates, but the promise that wasn't kept 05:56 The Treasury paid 41% more to subsidize less 06:56 Cuts where the climate is tightest: insurance and irrigation 07:34 Why this matters to the stock market: the 40-year trend 08:16 Private money taking the place of public money 09:23 Three Tentos: who plays best in this scenario 12:44 Kepler Weber: appears in the plan, but the numbers don't add up 14:45 The real reason to look at Kepler: the storage deficit 16:38 The sector that seemed to be winning but Cuts taken: machinery 17:25 The listed companies that live off parts and components 18:51 The neutral companies: grains, sugar, ethanol and meat 20:25 Banco do Brasil: the most difficult case 21:29 Final considerations ► Instagram:   / guilherme.varos   ► LinkedIn:   / varos-brasil   ► Follow me on X: https://x.com/guilhermevcz ► Follow VAROS on X: https://x.com/varosbr #PlanoSafra #Agro #3tentos #TTEN3 #KeplerWeber #KEPL3 #BancoDoBrasil #BBAS3 #Agronegocio #Investimentos #BolsaDeValores #AcoesDoAgro #SLC #BrasilAgro #Randon #Tupy #CreditoRural #AnaliseDeAcoes #B3 #SmallCaps #VariavelIncome #Soja #Fiagro