China's Next Move: Why Indonesia Just Lost All Its Leverage

Indonesia thought it won. Three weeks after forcing China to reverse a royalty hike, Indonesia's top economic minister was in Shanghai sitting across from two of China's most senior ministers — and I don't think that meeting went the way Jakarta wanted. In this breakdown, I walk through what's actually happened since the last video: the Shanghai talks, China's grip on roughly 75% of Indonesia's nickel refining capacity, a $2.7 billion smelter now in debt restructuring, and the US-Indonesia trade deal that's quietly changed the whole equation. My take — and it's just that, my take — is that Indonesia didn't win this fight. It just moved the negotiation to a bigger table where China gets to set the terms. If you haven't seen the first video on how this whole standoff started, go watch that one first — this is the direct sequel. ⏱️ Timestamps: 0:00 – Indonesia thought it won 1:00 – Why the fight isn't over 2:30 – Rewind: how we got here 4:00 – The Shanghai meeting nobody's talking about 6:00 – China's 75% grip on refining 8:00 – The court filing that says it all 10:00 – The US wildcard 12:00 – What this means going forward This is ongoing — subscribe if you want to catch the next update as this plays out.