More accurately predicting the future | Philip Tetlock

Originally released June 2019. Dr Philip Tetlock has spent 40 years as a meticulous social scientist, collecting millions of predictions from tens of thousands of people, in order to figure out how good humans really are at foreseeing the future, and what habits of thought allow us to do better. In this episode, Rob and Phil discuss how Phil's work can be applied to your personal life to answer high-stakes questions, such as how likely you are to thrive in a given career path, or whether your business idea will be a billion-dollar unicorn — or fall apart catastrophically. We also bring a few methodological questions raised by the author of a recent review of the forecasting literature. And we find out what jobs people can take to make improving the reasonableness of decision-making in major institutions their profession, as it has been for Tetlock over many decades. ---- The 80,000 Hours Podcast features unusually in-depth conversations about the world’s most pressing problems and what you can do to solve them. Learn more, read the summary and find the full transcript on the 80,000 Hours website: https://80000hours.org/podcast/episod...