April 2025: Modeling Gas and Hydrate Development and Predicting Slope Stability Along the…

ABSTRACT: As global and ocean temperatures increase, the dissociation of methane hydrates at the feather edge of the gas hydrate stability zone has become a greater concern. Along the U.S. Atlantic margin there is a well-documented history of slope failure and numerous gas seeps have been recorded. However, it is not fully understood whether the observed gas seepages can lead to slope failure as seafloor data is often sparse. We use machine learning algorithms to predict seafloor properties along the U.S. Atlantic Margin. We then used a onedimensional fluid flow model at the feather edge of hydrate stability to predict methane hydrate and gas development over the last 120,000 years, simulating a glacial-interglacial cycle. Using historic temperature and pressure records, sediment properties in the area, and factor of safety calculations, we found that hydrate dissociation alone is unlikely to cause slope failure in the region, implying that an additional driving force would be necessary for failure to occur. BIO: Olin Carty is a PhD candidate in the petroleum engineering department at The University of Texas at Austin. He has a master’s degree from UT Austin in this department and a bachelor’s in science in math and geology from Bates College in Lewiston, Maine.