Strategies for navigating regional chaos amid the US-Israel-Iran War by Giorgio Cafiero

The Subhas Chandra Bose Chair on International Relations, Chanakya University, organized a webinar on 26 March 2026 titled Strategies for Navigating Regional Chaos amid the US–Israel–Iran War, featuring Mr. Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, Washington D.C., and moderated by Dr. Poornima B, non-resident fellow at SCBCIR. The session examined how the conflict is reshaping Gulf security, diplomacy, and energy calculations, with particular attention to the responses of GCC states, Oman, Turkey, and the United States. A central theme of the discussion was the GCC’s shift from deterrence to diplomacy with Iran after the 2019 attack cycle, followed by renewed distrust after recent Iranian missile and drone strikes across the region. The speaker noted that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain now face the challenge of balancing dialogue with Iran against the need for stronger defense postures and greater self-reliance, especially as confidence in U.S. security guarantees has weakened. Mr. Giorgio Cafeiro highlighted Oman’s continuing role as a neutral mediator and its effort to preserve channels with all sides despite drone attacks and regional polarization. Turkey’s position was also discussed as one of cautious balancing: opposing military escalation, warning against broader instability, and seeking diplomatic solutions while managing its own complex ties with Iran and Israel. The session closed with a policy-oriented note on the need for India and other external stakeholders to study Gulf security diversification, energy resilience, and diplomatic openings more closely. The webinar underscored that the US–Israel–Iran conflict is no longer just a military crisis; it is reshaping regional alignments, defense planning, and energy security across West Asia.