The global economy in the midst of shocks: between upheaval and resilience

Against the backdrop of the war in the #MiddleEast, how are the #EnergyCrisis and the rise of #AI redefining the dynamics of #Growth, #Inflation and #Productivity? What tools do advanced and emerging economies have at their disposal to strengthen their resilience whilst capitalising on the new opportunities that are emerging? How can #Europe adapt and capitalise on the changes currently underway? These were the questions addressed at the latest BNP Paribas Economic Studies conference: “The global economy in the face of shocks: between upheaval and resilience”. Alongside Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Chief Economist of the BNP Paribas Group, two panels of economists discussed the consequences of the energy crisis and the massive expansion of artificial intelligence. You can watch this conference again or discover it here: we hope you enjoy it! Definition : Stagflation : An economy suffering simultaneously from high inflation and low, or even zero, growth. Industrial inputs: Refers to all the elements that go into a production process. Currency depreciation: A fall in the value of a currency relative to others. This fall may be linked, in particular, to a deterioration in a country’s trade balance (a fall in exports or a rise in imports), a monetary policy decision (a change in interest rates) or movements in the financial markets (speculation, asset sales). AI-enabling goods: Defined according to the WTO nomenclature, these include raw materials, chemicals, equipment, semiconductors and other electrical and electronic materials used in AI, as well as those ‘likely to be used’ in AI (and therefore potentially in other applications too). Price-wage spiral: A macroeconomic cycle in which wage and price increases feed into one another, driving both upwards. The Jevons effect: An improvement in the efficiency of a resource’s use does not reduce its overall consumption but may, on the contrary, increase it (the Jevons paradox, formulated by the economist William Jevons in the 19th century). 00:00:05 Introduction 00:03:00 Part I — An energy shock – The global economy put to the test by geopolitics 00:32:17 Part II — A Transformative Shock – AI: The Mine, the Chip, the Entrepreneur