Déficit, deuda y reforma: Igal Magendzo advierte que Hacienda promete más de lo que puede cumplir

Economist Igal Magendzo analyzes the new fiscal roadmap presented by Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz and issues a fundamental warning: Chile's problem is not only that the deficit and debt continue to grow, but that fiscal institutions are losing credibility by promising unrealistic targets and maintaining overly optimistic projections for growth and tax revenue. In a conversation with Al Pan Pan, Magendzo questions the Finance Ministry's projection of a reduction in the structural deficit by 2030 while simultaneously promoting a reform that, in his view, will have deficit-inducing effects in the early years and relies on growth assumptions that currently lack solid support. His diagnosis is that the government is mixing fiscal policy with wishful thinking, and that this ultimately weakens confidence in an institution that should be serious, predictable, and credible. The interview also addresses the political background of the constitutional accusation against Nicolás Grau. Magendzo doesn't delve into the legal debate, but he does warn that establishing the idea that projection errors can become grounds for prosecution damages the country's technical image and erodes an economic institutional framework that Chile needs to strengthen, not weaken, at a time when it still needs to finance itself in international markets. His strongest criticism is directed at the design of the mega-reform. He argues that several of its measures have immediate costs, while their supposed benefits are projected toward an uncertain and distant future. In this context, he insists that Chile is not facing imminent collapse, but rather is moving along a familiar path: more deficit, more debt, and less room for maneuver if a serious correction is not made in time. 00:24 Kickoff: Debt, accusation against Nicolás Grau, and pressure on the Treasury 02:08 Quiroz's new fiscal roadmap and why Magendzo sees it as too ambitious 06:40 Structural deficit versus actual deficit: where the real problem lies 08:17 Is there real fiscal adjustment or just contradictory signals? 09:05 The additional debt of US$6.2 billion and the debate on the Grau projection 14:10 How the constitutional accusation damages economic institutions 18:44 The mega-reform and the problem of approving a deficit bill by a minimal majority 21:56 Which reform measures have immediate costs and uncertain benefits 22:39 Growth, tax integration, and “magical thinking” in fiscal policy 32:05 Closing Follow us on our social media and at https://www.elmostrador.cl/ Instagram:   / el_mostrador   Twitter:   / elmostrador   Facebook:   / elmostrador   TikTok:   / el_mostrador   #elmostrador #politics #opinion #news #currentaffairs #urgent