Paramés (Cobas): ¿Suerte o Habilidad? ¿Reversión a la media? ¿Cuál es la media de Paramés?

#Cobas, #Paramés, #Investment https://jordilltazer.substack.com/p/p... On this channel, I've talked several times about Paramés and Cobas, specifically in two videos (August 2019 and February 2021) that generated quite a bit of debate. In 2019, I recommended Cobas, considering the manager's regression to the mean, and in 2021, I analyzed the change in fees. But what has happened these years? Was it luck or skill? If we look at the performance from those videos, the results are interesting: Since August 2019, Cobas International (Class C) has (slightly) outperformed the MSCI World and MSCI World Quality. Since February 2021, Cobas has clearly outperformed the benchmark indices (108% vs. 79% for the World). However, the picture changes if we look at the entire period since 2017. There, a Cobas investor (+46%) would have lost resoundingly against the indices (+149% for the World). Curiously, assets under management reached their lowest point in 2021, just as individual investors were fleeing en masse (terrible timing). To understand whether Paramés is lucky or skilled, I use the concept of "reversion to the mean." I explain it with the analogy of a basketball player and the famous "Sports Illustrated Cover Curse." What is Paramés's "average"? Bestinver (1993-2014): 15.9% per year. Cobas (2016-2025): 4.37% per year. Its combined historical average is 11.59%, outperforming the MSCI World (10.22%). We analyze whether his time at Cobas was "bad luck" (below average) and whether his time at Bestinver was "good luck" (above average). As Michael Mauboussin says in "The Success Equation," distinguishing between luck and skill in investing requires many cycles. Today, Paramés remains at Cobas, more focused on management (CIO) and less on sales, which is positive. What do you think? Luck or skill? Time Notes 00:00 Introduction: Paramés, luck or skill? 00:37 Video Review 1 (August 2019): Comparison of Cobas vs. Indices 01:27 Video Review 2 (February 2021): The Change in Fees 01:51 Cobas's Profitability since 2021 02:44 The Problem: Cobas's Profitability since 2017 03:10 The Spectacular Timing of Retail Investors 07:05 The Importance of MEAN REVERSION 07:42 The Basketball Player Simile (80% Free Throws) 08:46 The "Cover Curse" (Sports Illustrated) 09:52 What is Paramés's TRUE GPA? 10:07 Period 1: Bestinver (1993-2014) 10:18 Period 2: Cobas (2016-2025) 10:43 The combined historical average (1993-2025) 11:06 How will it perform in the future? Its current role at Cobas 12:22 The key book: "The Success Equation" (Skill vs. Luck) 13:40 Conclusion: Luck or Ability? 14:06 Mentorships 📽️ Subscribe to the Channel:    / paunerorepublicaeconomica   💬 Join the Telegram Channel (Investment): https://t.me/mejores_depositos_subast... (best deposits, treasury bills, interest-bearing accounts, money market funds) Our money to the highest bidder. Follow me also on: 💎 LinkedIn:   / paunero   🐦 Twitter:   / paunero   💸 Website: https://paunero.com