The optimist's case for investing in 2026 with Sonu Varghese (#23)

In a sea of negative headlines and doom-and-gloom talking heads, Carson Group's Chief Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, Ph.D., shoots it straight. Markets go up more than they go down and one of the most detrimental ways to erode your ability to compound wealth is to sit on the sidelines or bet against markets. But don't take our word for it. Sonu delivers one of the most data-rich, clear-eyed macro conversations we've had on Building Better Portfolios. Backed by digestible market research that he creates alongside his colleague, Ryan Detrick, CMT, he brought all of it to the table. We recorded this on April 17th — right in the middle of a market melt-up — and covered everything from why earnings resiliency is the real story in Q1 2026, to why the Fed may be quietly losing its grip on inflation, to where gold and managed futures fit when bonds aren't doing their job. Sonu is refreshingly optimistic — but it's not vibes, it's data. If you're not already following him on LinkedIn or subscribing to the Facts vs. Feelings podcast, check the links below for more info on how to start. In this episode: → Carson's 2026 outlook 'Riding the Wave' — is it still intact? → Why Sonu sees the labor market as stronger than the headlines suggest → AI buildout as an economic engine — and why it shows up in inflation data → The earnings story no one is talking about: margin expansion is doing the heavy lifting in 2026 → Why core PCE is running hot — and what the Fed is quietly signaling by doing nothing → The 2% inflation target debate: should the Fed just move the goalposts? → De-globalization as a structural inflation driver — and why 2000–2020 was the anomaly → Gold, managed futures, and how to diversify when bonds aren't cutting it → The immigration slowdown and what a near-zero payroll breakeven means for markets → Where the Fed goes from here — and why standing pat is itself a policy signal ⏱️ TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 — Intro: Meet Sonu Varghese, Ph.D. - Is there a doctor on board?! 01:30 — 'Riding the Wave': Carson's 2026 outlook — still valid? 06:40 — Why diversification actually matters now (unlike the last decade) 11:05 — AI as an economic growth driver: chips, data centers, and power 16:50 — Real assets in a portfolio: gold, telecom, and companies that 'make stuff' 20:45 — Earnings resiliency: why margin expansion is the star of Q1 2026 25:40 — The Fed's inflation problem: core PCE, transitory vs. structural, and the rate cut debate 30:00 — Movie tickets, dental bills & airline prices: why consumer sentiment is at historic lows 35:50 — Where does the Fed go from here? Standing pat = implicit easing 40:05 — Should the Fed just change its inflation target to 3%? The slippery slope argument 45:25 — U.S. debt, gold bugs, and inflating your way out 48:10 — Sonu's 90s Euro pop secret (yes, really) + where to find Carson's research 🔗 LINKS & RESOURCES: 📊 Carson Group Research: carsongroup.com/research 🎙️ Facts vs. Feelings Podcast (Sonu & Ryan Dietrich): available on Spotify, Apple, and YouTube 🔗 Follow Sonu and his colleague, Ryan, on LinkedIn & X: linkedin.com/in/sonuvarghese and @SonuVarghese   / ryandetrick   and @RyanDetrick 📌 ABOUT BUILDING BETTER PORTFOLIOS: Building Better Portfolios is hosted by Paisley Nardini, CFA, CAIA and Joshua Flade, CFA. Each week we bring on leading voices in investing, portfolio construction, and capital markets to help advisors and allocators think more clearly about building portfolios that work. 🔔 Subscribe and leave us a review — only the good kind. 😄